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Sound investing can make you very wealthy if you're not in too big a hurry.
" Warren Buffet"

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17-05-2017
 
 
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The man behind the name Valine is Mr Rajnish Sharma, a post-graduate in Economics and a SEBI
certified Equity Research Analyst (SEBI registration no.: INH300003694),
with an excellent grip on technicals, fundamentals and equity
derivatives. Valine, with over a decade of market experience,
has been ranked consistently as one of the top 5 boarders on MMB
forum for well over a couple of years now, and all these years,
he has been selflessly helping with his opinions on Indian stock
markets and various tradable Instruments.  
 
With the launching of this new website and changing times,
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While we are committed as before to serve and help investors to
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analytical know-how, thereby making an informed decision, the focal
point of our new services would remain equities, which would include
an informed view in investing, trading in the cash market and derivatives
segment. Since we know, that most of the subscribers who would join
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26-03-2017
Future & Options

In a futures contract, there is an obligation on the part of both the buyer and the seller. Options are of two types - Calls and Puts options: 'Calls' give the buyer the right, but not the obligation to buy  the underlying asset, at a given price on or before a given future date on the other hand ‘ Put’ option is an option contract in which the buyer has the right  but not the obligation to sell a specified underlying asset. Trading in options is like betting whereby the buyers have more chance losing with a calculative risk  & the writers have a better probability of winning with huge risk. Options provide an automatic stop albeit one should learn how to play, first. As options designed in such a way that buyers are hardly the winners and options writers are exposed to unlimited risk. Therefore, this segment on Futures & Options would be more focused on winning derivative strategies rather than punting derivative instruments by creating the naked positions, for consistent profit. 

PCR- Put Call Ratio – By Valine 21st Jan -  As we inch towards an understanding into Put Call Ratio (PCR), I would like to remind options traders that unfortunately, the law of probability works against the options buyers. The time decay eats up the whole premium even if the underlying remains stagnant at the strike price for which you have paid the premium at first instance. This doesn't mean that one should go and sell options right away' as probability works in his favour. But for options are designed in such a way that even if there are more chances of winning by writing the options there is a chance of losing unlimited amount if the trade does turn out against the writer of the options. So, learn, learn & learn before plunging into derivatives. It's a dicey game of betting.  By definition, the Put-Call Ratio is the number of put options traded divided by the number of call options traded in a given period. While the ratio is usually calculated on the basis of options trading volumes, it sometimes also computed using open interest volume. Since options are typically the hedging tools, put options are being used to hedge when bears are on the rampage or we can also use put options as a derivative instrument to bet on the decline. On the other hand call options are used for hedging against the bulls while they are on the roll or we bet can on market strength.  

The formula for computing PCR is very simple but the real fun lies in the interpretation of the concept.  

  Put Call Ratio (volume) = Put Volume / Call Volume  Put Call Ratio (OI) = Put open OI on a given day / Call OI on the same day  

Basing our case in the study on the options volume, a put/call ratio of 1.17 in Nifty means that for every  100 calls bought there were 117 puts bought. Which means a market participant in present scenario is in support of the bears. However, since the put-call ratio is a contrarian indicator essentially designed to determine the market sentiment to interpret what rest of the market participants are doing at a certain point in time. A PCR reading of 1 does mean that the market is in an equilibrium phase and the participants are neither very bullish nor bearish and the markets would remain sideways in near future. When it's  more than 1 it's very bullish as most people think the market is going down.  

However, a contrary opines interpret it as a good time to go long in the market as he assumes that further selling pressure will ease out as most market participants are already in a bear mode.  This means that  PCR as an indicator denotes that when the majority thinks the market is going to move a certain direction,  it usually does the opposite.  While interpreting PCR we must consider the fact that the average value for the put-call ratio is rarely 1.00  due to the very reason that equity options traders and investors almost always buy more calls than puts.  Hence, the average ratio is often far less than 1.00 for stock options and even in Bank Nifty. At present  Bank Nifty PCR in volume terms is .92 and in OI terms is .71. This would also mean that traders are mostly punting on the calls and funds are reluctant to hedge their portfolio with any other instrument apart from  Nifty.  I have been discussing mostly incorporation with Nifty. My view with Nifty PCR  at 1.17 by way trading volume is bullish and 1.34 on the basis of Open Interest is extremely bullish. This view represents the psychology of the investors on Nifty on 21st January.  

 

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About Us

Valine10x

Official page of Valine, one of the most sought after Equity Research Analysts. For reliable and Well-grounded equity solutions and stock market analysis, subscribe to www.valine10x.com

RAJNISH SHARMA

Research Analyst

The man behind the name is Mr. Rajnish Sharma, a post-graduate in Economics and a certified Equity Research Analyst with an excellent grip on technicals, fundamentals and equity derivatives.
SEBI registration no.: INH300003694

Customers reviews

 

 

 

All is yours, Valine, as per your suggestion long back on 3infotech, I had earned 200% profit (4lacks) from the single trade....Just following you sincerely and learning day by day.............Your well wisher Gangu

Gangadharesha A S

An Investor

Hi Rajnish,

 
At first heartier congratulation on your new role "Research Analyst" & wish you to prosper further in life.
 
I have been following you since 2014 and your great follower. Your medium & long-term suggestion are priceless. Fond of you research on the market study.  So, many thanks for your valuable contribution.

Shoman Das

An Investor

 

 

 

I have known rajnishji for over a yr now. I follow his medium term and long term calls and have made good profit. He has unique technical expertise as he spots gems much before others do. Recent e.g. Like just dial, jet airways, idea, Bharat finance etc. 

Mr. Aamod Dhople

New Jersey

 

Sir,

 time to time I discuss with you over the telephone and I found that your hard working for the study of the small shares is very useful. when I argue with you I found that you are fully equipped with all data 
specially in following shares i/my friends have made good money  in PNB , HCL INFO, TATA MOTORS
 

Mr. Mukul

Chartered Accountant

 
 
Sir,
I appreciate your advice after a deep study for Tata Motors, Sudarshan Chemicals, Himadri Chemicals and Bhel adviced by you in last 4 month . I am quite happy and earned a reasonable money in these shares.   
 
 

Mr. K C Lath

Director Lath Securities P Limited

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